It is real hard to give you a clear answer.
When I was diagnosed 5 years ago, I couldn't tell if I was flaring at first. I have Lupus and RA, and have alot of muscle and joint pain on a daily basis, but when I have a flare, the pain is worse, the fatigue is worse, brain fog is worse, everything is alot worse, when I am in a flare. I feel like I have a bad case of the flu.
It might take you a little while to figure out, what is the daily pain and what is a flare.
I may have been dealt a bad hand, but at least I'm still playing with a full deck. ( most of the time anyway).